It was results day for four state elections yesterday and four different fronts won -- at least that's what I thought till I saw newspapers this morning. They made it look like a BJP show all the way. Really?
Why didn't I realise it yesterday itself? Maybe because I didn't watch the TV analysis. But I did see the results, and I thought it was about Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, BJP in Assam and the Left in Kerala. And, yes, one big picture was Congress continuing its spectacular downfall. It was the biggest loser, losing power in Kerala and Assam and its coalitions failing to wrest power in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
But how come it all added up to BJP's moment in history? Wasn't it more like big regional leaders once again proving their might, just like Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad did in Bihar?
Yes, BJP did thrash Congress in Assam and made its first ever government in the Northeast. And? And it won an assembly seat for the first time in Kerala. And? That's about it, I guess. Or did I miss anything?
I went back to the election commission site (http://eciresults.nic.in) to look for what I missed. I confess I couldn't find much. I added up the numbers to compare BJP's performance with that of Congress. (I did not count their allies because I just don't have it in me to look for the numbers of each and every partners of their coalitions...but don't worry it sort of evens out: if BJP allies won 26 seats in Assam, Congress allies won 25 in Kerala.) Here's what I found:
BJP won 64 seats in all in the four states plus the union territory of Puducherry where assembly elections were held: 60 in Assam, three in Bengal, one in Kerala, and none in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Congress won 115 seats: 44 in Bengal, 26 in Assam, 22 in Kerala, 15 in Puducherry, and 8 in Tamil Nadu.
What about vote share?
Assam
BJP: 29.5% (41.5% adding its allies)
Congress: 31.0%
Kerala
BJP: 10.5%(14.4% adding allies)
Congress: 23.7% (36.8% adding allies)
Puducherry
BJP: 2.4%
Congress: 30.6%
Tamil Nadu
BJP: 2.8%
Congress: 6.4%
West Bengal
BJP: 10.2%
Congress: 12.3%
So, clearly Congress remains a bigger party than BJP in the far corners of the country. Yes, it is on a rapid downward spiral, but perhaps it's too early to talk about a 'Cong-less India' though that possibility is very much there.
More importantly, I think there is nothing in this round of elections to suggest that BJP has reached a new high. Assam results are not exactly a surprise. It was a straight fight and there was supposed to be a big anti-incumbency factor. This Assamese friend who I met in a recent trip to Meghalaya was saying he wanted Tarun Gogoi to lose more than he wanted BJP to win. I am not trying to take anything away from BJP's win. In fact this guy and the taxi drivers I spoke to felt it's a tough fight and too close to call. So, of course it was an impressive performance by BJP in Assam.
But winning one seat in Kerala, three in Bengal and gaining less than 3% vote share in Tamil Nadu in my opinion do not call for celebrations for a party ruling the country with a majority of its own. And has it managed to improve the vote share in garnered in Lok Sabha polls in these states? I doubt.
Many people who follow Kerala politics would attribute BJP's win there to the candidate -- O Rajagopal, who is the face of BJP in Kerala for years, contesting in almost every election and consistently getting a lot of votes. In fact, he had come very close to winning in the last assembly elections as well. Left circles are also talking about alleged cross-voting, pointing out a significant fall in Congress-led UDF's vote share in Rajagopalan's constituency. That's not necessarily correct because Rajagopal is a strong candidate and BJP did get a significant number of votes in Thiruvananthapuram in the general elections.
With the kind of campaign BJP did in state elections this time, led by the prime minister, my feeling is that the party has reasons to feel disappointed with the results in Tamil Nadu, Bengal and Kerala.
I would rather agree with a comment my colleague Ashish made yesterday: This elections have proved that BJP can beat only Congress. Wherever there is a big regional party -- be it Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in West Bengal or AIADMK or DMK in Tamil Nadu -- BJP has failed to make a mark. Just like Congress.
My take is that the national parties need popular regional leaders to make a big impact in states. I guess both Congress and BJP lack them in several states.
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Why didn't I realise it yesterday itself? Maybe because I didn't watch the TV analysis. But I did see the results, and I thought it was about Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, BJP in Assam and the Left in Kerala. And, yes, one big picture was Congress continuing its spectacular downfall. It was the biggest loser, losing power in Kerala and Assam and its coalitions failing to wrest power in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
But how come it all added up to BJP's moment in history? Wasn't it more like big regional leaders once again proving their might, just like Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad did in Bihar?
Yes, BJP did thrash Congress in Assam and made its first ever government in the Northeast. And? And it won an assembly seat for the first time in Kerala. And? That's about it, I guess. Or did I miss anything?
I went back to the election commission site (http://eciresults.nic.in) to look for what I missed. I confess I couldn't find much. I added up the numbers to compare BJP's performance with that of Congress. (I did not count their allies because I just don't have it in me to look for the numbers of each and every partners of their coalitions...but don't worry it sort of evens out: if BJP allies won 26 seats in Assam, Congress allies won 25 in Kerala.) Here's what I found:
BJP won 64 seats in all in the four states plus the union territory of Puducherry where assembly elections were held: 60 in Assam, three in Bengal, one in Kerala, and none in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Congress won 115 seats: 44 in Bengal, 26 in Assam, 22 in Kerala, 15 in Puducherry, and 8 in Tamil Nadu.
What about vote share?
Assam
BJP: 29.5% (41.5% adding its allies)
Congress: 31.0%
Kerala
BJP: 10.5%(14.4% adding allies)
Congress: 23.7% (36.8% adding allies)
Puducherry
BJP: 2.4%
Congress: 30.6%
Tamil Nadu
BJP: 2.8%
Congress: 6.4%
West Bengal
BJP: 10.2%
Congress: 12.3%
So, clearly Congress remains a bigger party than BJP in the far corners of the country. Yes, it is on a rapid downward spiral, but perhaps it's too early to talk about a 'Cong-less India' though that possibility is very much there.
More importantly, I think there is nothing in this round of elections to suggest that BJP has reached a new high. Assam results are not exactly a surprise. It was a straight fight and there was supposed to be a big anti-incumbency factor. This Assamese friend who I met in a recent trip to Meghalaya was saying he wanted Tarun Gogoi to lose more than he wanted BJP to win. I am not trying to take anything away from BJP's win. In fact this guy and the taxi drivers I spoke to felt it's a tough fight and too close to call. So, of course it was an impressive performance by BJP in Assam.
But winning one seat in Kerala, three in Bengal and gaining less than 3% vote share in Tamil Nadu in my opinion do not call for celebrations for a party ruling the country with a majority of its own. And has it managed to improve the vote share in garnered in Lok Sabha polls in these states? I doubt.
Many people who follow Kerala politics would attribute BJP's win there to the candidate -- O Rajagopal, who is the face of BJP in Kerala for years, contesting in almost every election and consistently getting a lot of votes. In fact, he had come very close to winning in the last assembly elections as well. Left circles are also talking about alleged cross-voting, pointing out a significant fall in Congress-led UDF's vote share in Rajagopalan's constituency. That's not necessarily correct because Rajagopal is a strong candidate and BJP did get a significant number of votes in Thiruvananthapuram in the general elections.
With the kind of campaign BJP did in state elections this time, led by the prime minister, my feeling is that the party has reasons to feel disappointed with the results in Tamil Nadu, Bengal and Kerala.
I would rather agree with a comment my colleague Ashish made yesterday: This elections have proved that BJP can beat only Congress. Wherever there is a big regional party -- be it Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in West Bengal or AIADMK or DMK in Tamil Nadu -- BJP has failed to make a mark. Just like Congress.
My take is that the national parties need popular regional leaders to make a big impact in states. I guess both Congress and BJP lack them in several states.
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